A decade following the UK stumbled into a hasty referendum that split the country and unleashed turmoil, a advisory comes from across the Irish Sea: it may occur once more.
Policymakers and voters entered unwittingly Brexit and the same could occur with a referendum on a unified Ireland, initiating upheavals for which no one is ready.
That is the message from two leading writers from each side of the Irish border who have collaborated to examine the pros and cons of Northern Ireland leaving the UK to form a new state with the Republic of Ireland.
Administrative Establishments Ill-Equipped
Fintan O’Toole and The Northern Ireland editor, have concluded that the administrative systems in Ireland and Britain are gravely ill-prepared for a potentially contentious and seismic referendum.
"The lesson of Brexit has gone unabsorbed, which is that developments can arise suddenly and can build support rapidly," O’Toole said. "I would suggest that the political architecture of our archipelago remains very unstable."
New Title Intends to Stir Debate
The pair have studied the political, financial and cultural reasons for any governmental shift in a volume, The Case For and Against Unification, published by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They aim to encourage dialogue on the issue with a series of lectures that will bring them to Westminster soon.
"What haunts everybody, or ought to concern everybody, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," stated O’Toole.
"We do not want a referendum on a yes-no, unclear proposal whose results have remained undefined because then you find yourself with an highly split population where people who have lost are unable to accept losing and the those successful don't know precisely what it is that they have won."
Constitutional Provision
Under the peace accord, the Northern Ireland government minister must arrange a public vote on Irish unification if it seems probable that a majority would support.
Nationalist parties and other nationalists claim this point is imminent, and a organisation called pro-unification advocates has built momentum, but authorities in Dublin and London and pro-UK factions downplay the likelihood, resulting in ambiguity whether or when there will be a national vote.
Lack of Serious Debate
Political rhetoric supporting and opposing unification has masked the shortage of substantive discussion, said McBride.
"Individuals are often supportive or opposed the concept but the detailed consideration which may surpass that to realise it hasn't for the most part happened. Much has gone on in scholarly circles but very few politicians or activists seek to involve themselves even with the essentials. As an example, which kind of country should be desired? Unitary? Federal?"
Publication's Method
In the publication, no writer endorses unification or the status quo. Each composes two essays that strive for impartiality in presenting the rationale for a unified Ireland and the case against, gathering economic and societal statistics, historical precedents and governmental frameworks.
Discussions range over national emblems, duties, healthcare systems, retirement funds, sovereign debt obligations and the danger of pro-UK militancy. The goal is to educate and provoke discussion.
"Considerable attention exists in the subject but there is still lacking a discussion," commented O’Toole. "Debate suggests an acceptance of the concept that there might be valid points on either side."
Parallel Votes
A public vote in Northern Ireland would simultaneously prompt one in the republic, where the electorate say they favour unification but reject increased taxation or adopting a new flag to recognise pro-UK communities' UK heritage.
"Policymakers in Ireland must work out what the offer from nationalist groups is beyond just declaring: 'We desire a united Ireland and we love you'," remarked O’Toole.
Likelihood of Public Vote
The journalist considers a national vote in his lifetime is possible and that it might occur suddenly. "It is possible just a reckless or a ill-advised or a incompetent secretary of state who declares: 'Let's just do this and settle the matter.'"
Both pro-unification advocates and pro-UK supporters have plausible, justified perspectives, he said. "One side will win on this issue and somebody will ultimately lose but both parties has got valuable insights to learn from the other's arguments."
Appeal for More Extensive Debate
Westminster must engage with the discussion, said the analyst. "This is about Britain. It is a UK matter as much as it is an Irish matter."
